Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a capability provided through current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
